Sundhedsudgifter og finanspolitisk holdbarhed

SUMMARY:

Average growth in Danish healthcare expenditures relative to GDP has been among the lowest in the OECD area since 1970, but growth rates are rapidly increasing. The analysis separates expenditure growth according to demographic and non-demographic factors. As an innovation the effects of so-called healthy ageing are included into the demographic effects. Annual demographic and non-demographic real growth in publicly financed health expenditures is estimated to be 0.4 pct. and 2.0 pct. respectively for the period 1993-2008. Average non-demographic growth in healthcare expenditures exceeds average annual growth rate in real productivity per working hour by 0.9 pct. in the period. Fiscal sustainability is shown to be very sensitive to non-demographic cost increases in excess of productivity growth: A sustained nondemographic expenditure growth of 0.3 pct. in excess of the productivity growth increases the fiscal sustainability problem by 2.1 pct. of GDP. Therefore current growth in non-demographic healthcare expenditures cannot be maintained for a longer period without challenging the public financing of healthcare expenditures in Denmark. On the other hand fiscal sustainability is shown to be robust with respect to growth in healthcare expenditures due to future increases in life expectancy. This is a consequence of healthy ageing and the indexation of the statutory retirement age to life expectancy.